This is the most important rule of all. It is a must for horse players and all people involved in gambling. If you are serious about making money gambling you must incorporate a money management system. I define a money management system as a determination of how much money is safely wagered on any given bet. Try to find a money management system that best suits your betting style and bankroll. I will write more about money management in up coming articles.

Rule 2 Do Not Chase

Like Little Orphan Annie said “the sun will come out tomorrow.” How many times have you been down, and found yourself playing a track or race you would not have normally played. What usually happens is that you force plays and lose, only to be down more money. Being able to take losses is a difficult lesson to learn, but one that must be learned if you desire success in gambling. I promise the sun will come out tomorrow and so will the horses.

Rule 3 Stay Away From Sure Things

Let me say this in plain English, there is no such thing as a sure thing. Anything can happen in a race. If you have been around long enough you probably have seen some crazy things happen in races.
Let me tell you my own true story about tips at the race track.

I have been an owner of thoroughbred race horses for about 12 years. That being said, my first time on the backside of the track was to watch my first horse breeze. While I was there my trainer was talking to another trainer about the races that day. The other trainer told us how he loved his horse that was entered to run in a maiden race that afternoon. I quickly marked it on my program and was looking forward to making a sizable bet. Shortly later my trainer and I came across another trainer who told us how he had a great shot in the same maiden race. I quickly marked it and said to myself, this is great I can make an exacta box and really make a score. Later the same morning we came across another trainer and a jockey and believe it or not they both loved their horses in the same maiden race. Now I had four horses out of nine that had a great shot that day. I went to the track that afternoon and I handicapped the race. I found a horse that displayed many of the things I look for when picking a winner in a maiden race. I then decided to key my selection for 1st 2nd and 3rd in trifectas with the four tips I received in the morning. Sure money, so I thought. The result was that my pick won the race and paid $30 and change and only one of the four horses finished better than 4th. From that day on I have been very skeptical of inside tips at the track. There is no easy money at the track. You have to do your work and trust your own picks.

Rule 4 Keep Records

When using a service or your own handicapping selections, it is very important to keep accurate records. Keeping records is the only way to determine if your system works. Be sure to allow a fair amount of time when judging a system or service. I recommend a minimum of 100 bets in order to gauge the reliability of your system. You should keep records wager types and amounts along with profits and losses. You will be amazed to see certain patterns develop. This allows you to focus on your strengths while eliminating your weaknesses. The main reason people do not keep records is that they cannot bear to see all the losses. If you choose not to keep records, you will never learn from your mistakes and are sure to make the same mistakes over and over again.

Rule 5 Look for Value

There are differences of opinion when it comes to the topic of value. I define value as the risk versus the potential reward. Some say that value means not playing a favorite or a horse at 3-1 or less. I do not limit myself to specific odds when determining value. Although I am the last person to look for favorites, there are times when they offer value. Value is determined on a race by race basis. When handicapping races it is a good idea to play lines maker. Handicappers often overlook this idea, but it is useful in uncovering value in a race. I try to find races where a favorite is over bet and vulnerable. Doing this will increase your ROI (return on investment) over the long run.

Rule 6 Do Not Force a Bet

This is a difficult rule for horse handicappers. There are many races in a day and many days in a year. So do not make a bet unless you feel it is a smart one. A serious horse handicapper must have the discipline to pass on races about which he does not have strong opinion. Before you bet, ask yourself, “is it a good bet.” Listen to yourself, there should be not regrets on the wager you make.

Rule 7 Be Flexible on Betting Angles

Successful Handicappers are not a slave to any particular angle. Using only one angle greatly limits your potential profits. It is important to learn and incorporate different angles when handicapping horses. An astute handicapper can determine which angles to apply to a particular race. Speed figures, pace, drop downs, pedigrees etc., are all valuable and should be used in conjunction when looking for a winner.

Rule 8 Be Prepared

The boy scouts preach, “Be prepared.” This seems obvious but the advice is seldom followed. First, look over the card in order to find races with value. These are the races to study further. Sharp handicappers have most of their work done before the track opens. When at the track, get the scratches and determine if it affects your selections. Since you did your home work you will have time to adjust or cancel your play. Doing your work in advance also allows time to view the horses and the tote board before making your bet.

Rule 9 Trust Your Instincts

To be a successful handicapper you must trust your instincts. I personally struggled with this in the beginning of my career. I would handicap the race, circle my picks and then begin to second guess myself. The result was that many more times than not my original picks were winners. It took many losing tickets to learn “think long, think wrong”. Go with your first instincts and trust your skills as a handicapper.

Rule 10 Have the Winner’s Attitude

Although I mention this last it should probably be first on my list. If you go to the track without a winner’s attitude, you have lost before you have begun. In order to win at any type of gambling you must be confident. The one thing all the so called hard luck people have in common is a lack of a winning attitude. If you have a losing attitude your subconscious mind will make losing a reality.

You can also read:

• January 4, 2010 -- Money Management
• March 20, 2010 -- Sports Like a Pro
• February 1, 2010 -- Baseball betting
• January 20, 2010 -- Betting frenzy
• January 11, 2010 -- Betting on baseball
• October 25, 2009 -- American Idol Betting Odds
• June 8, 2009 -- GTECH Deciding To Launch G2
• May 16, 2009 -- Tony Bloom A Star Poker And A Good Expert In Betting Sportive
• May 13, 2009 -- Stanleybet Has Joined The European Sports Security Association
• March 30, 2009 -- Sports Betting May Be Legal In Delaware?

The point is this: How will you ‘feel’ about your system after a draw down of 30%? Is it likely that you will continue using the system? Or will your “better judgment” win out as you add this picking system to the picking systems’ scrap heap? I would venture to guess that most bettors would stop betting the system if a large draw down occurred. The problem is that statistically, a system with a positive expectancy will still have large streaks of winners and losers. If you should be so unfortunate as to start utilizing your strategy just before one of those inevitable losing streaks, then you will experience significant destruction of your funds.

The lesson here is to minimize your draw downs to a level where you feel comfortable. That is, use a bet size where if you experience a string of losers, (which you will) then you will still move forward and still gain that statistical advantage called ‘positive expectancy’. If you make your bet size such that each bet has no significant emotional effect, then you are practicing the proper money management. If a bettor can achieve this, then he will know what it is like to have 13 losers in a row in a good system. More importantly, he will be psychologically stable enough to weather the storm and achieve the profits he deserves for having the ability to foresee such occurrences and plan for them accordingly.”

In simple terms, it is important to use a money management system that allows your bet size to be within your comfort level. Using a money management system will help your psychology withstand losing streaks. A bettor should make their bet size in relation to their bankroll small enough that there is no emotional effect on the outcome. This will enable you to stay with a system long enough to see if works.

There are several valid money management systems and some schemes that are not so prudent. Many of these will be discussed in later articles. For now, we will discuss a “percentage of bankroll”. In this system, the player will risk a percentage of his current bankroll. For this discussion, we will use a 2% bankroll ratio for the bet. We like this amount because as explained above must people do not have the discipline or stomach to see large losses. As you can see in the illustration below, we start with a $10,000 bankroll so our first bet will be $200. As our bankroll increases and or decreases so will our bet size. We also make the assumption that we will have a 60% winning probability. Bull Market Sports Handicappers has an average three year winning probability of 64.65% so we will be conservative and use 60% in our illustration. This means that for every 100 bets there will be 60 winners and 40 losers. As you can see in the illustration, one can expect to net $3,493. This makes your total bankroll $13,493 at the end of 100 bets.

We will now compare this to a same size bet system. We will start with the assumption that we will win 60 games with a bet size of $200. This will produce $12,000 in gross winnings. Now take the 40 losers at 220 (don’t forget the vigorish) which yields 8,800 in gross losses. The net profit will be $3,200. This is are not bad but not as good as the percentage of bankroll illustration.

Some people who subscribe to the same size bet system will say it is not a fair comparison. They will say that many of the wagers in the bankroll system are greater than $200. The argument is that if you wager more than $200 you will surely show larger profits.

Let’s look at this argument further. First we take the average of all bets in the illustration. Doing this will produce and average bet size of $205. If you use this bet and multiply this by the 60 winners, we get gross winning in the amount of $12,298. We then do the same for the 40 losers (again do not forget the vigorish) and we get gross losses of $9,019 for a net profit of $3,280. This is better but still falls short of the $3,485 net winnings we experience using the percentage of bankroll system. Another problem with this argument is that it is impossible to determine an average of previous bets because the bet have not yet been made. Since we do not have a crystal ball its impossible to do this.

In order to make money in sports betting, you must look at it as an investment. This separates the successful gambler from the “hard luck” loser. Gambling must be thought of as investment such as the stock market. Sports betting is a grind, do not expect to make a killing overnight. People who bet large amounts either to recoup losses or to make large sums in a short period of time may have a gambling problem. If this is you and you think you may have a problem, please go to the official gamblers anonymous site and see if you are in need of help.

Initial Equity 10,000
Winning Probability 60% total $ bets 20,497
Total Trials 100 Ave. bet 205
Amount of Profits + 12,452 60 win 12,298
Amount of Losses - 8,959 40 lose 9,019
Max. Runs positive 10 net 3,280
Max. Runs negative 5

Results
Equity 13,493
Profit/Loss + 3,493
Nr. of Profits 60.00 65%
Nr. of Losses 40.00 35%
Return + 68.1%
Max. Drawdown - 19.3%
MAR-Ratio 3.52
Average Profit/Loss + 35
Median Profit/Loss + 181

10000 Max. Bet Size in $ Bet Size in %
Trial# Profit/Loss Equity Drawdown – Return To Win / Risking of Current Equity
1 - 220 9780 – 2.2% – 2.2% 200 220 2%
2 + 196 9976 – 0.2% – 0.2% 196 215 2%
3 + 200 10176 0% + 1.8% 200 219 2%
4 - 224 9952 – 2.2% – 0.5% 204 224 2%
5 - 219 9733 – 4.4% – 2.7% 199 219 2%
6 + 195 9928 – 2.4% – 0.7% 195 214 2%
7 - 218 9710 – 4.6% – 2.9% 199 218 2%
8 - 214 9496 – 6.7% – 5.0% 194 214 2%
9 - 209 9287 – 8.7% – 7.1% 190 209 2%
10 - 204 9083 – 10.7% – 9.2% 186 204 2%
11 + 182 9265 – 9.0% – 7.4% 182 200 2%
12 - 204 9061 – 11.0% – 9.4% 185 204 2%
13 + 181 9242 – 9.2% – 7.6% 181 199 2%
14 - 203 9039 – 11.2% – 9.6% 185 203 2%
15 - 199 8840 – 13.1% – 11.6% 181 199 2%
16 - 194 8646 – 15.0% – 13.5% 177 194 2%
17 - 190 8456 – 16.9% – 15.4% 173 190 2%
18 - 186 8270 – 18.7% – 17.3% 169 186 2%
19 + 165 8435 – 17.1% – 15.7% 165 182 2%
20 + 169 8604 – 15.4% – 14.0% 169 186 2%
21 + 172 8776 – 13.8% – 12.2% 172 189 2%
22 - 193 8583 – 15.7% – 14.2% 176 193 2%
23 - 189 8394 – 17.5% – 16.1% 172 189 2%
24 - 185 8209 – 19.3% – 17.9% 168 185 2%
25 + 181 8390 – 17.6% – 16.1% 164 181 2%
26 + 185 8575 – 15.7% – 14.3% 168 185 2%
27 + 189 8764 – 13.9% – 12.4% 172 189 2%
28 - 193 8571 – 15.8% – 14.3% 175 193 2%
29 - 189 8382 – 17.6% – 16.2% 171 189 2%
30 + 168 8550 – 16.0% – 14.5% 168 184 2%
31 + 171 8721 – 14.3% – 12.8% 171 188 2%
32 + 174 8895 – 12.6% – 11.1% 174 192 2%
33 + 178 9073 – 10.8% – 9.3% 178 196 2%
34 - 200 8873 – 12.8% – 11.3% 181 200 2%
35 + 177 9050 – 11.1% – 9.5% 177 195 2%
36 - 199 8851 – 13.0% – 11.5% 181 199 2%
37 + 177 9028 – 11.3% – 9.7% 177 195 2%
38 + 181 9209 – 9.5% – 7.9% 181 199 2%
39 + 184 9393 – 7.7% – 6.1% 184 203 2%
40 + 188 9581 – 5.8% – 4.2% 188 207 2%
41 + 192 9773 – 4.0% – 2.3% 192 211 2%
42 + 195 9968 – 2.0% – 0.3% 195 215 2%
43 + 199 10167 – 0.1% + 1.7% 199 219 2%
44 + 203 10370 0% + 3.7% 203 224 2%
45 + 207 10577 0% + 5.8% 207 228 2%
46 + 212 10789 0% + 7.9% 212 233 2%
47 - 237 10552 – 2.2% + 5.5% 216 237 2%
48 - 232 10320 – 4.3% + 3.2% 211 232 2%
49 - 277 10043 – 6.9% + 0.4% 206 227 2%
50 + 201 10244 – 5.1% + 2.4% 201 221 2%
51 + 205 10449 – 3.2% + 4.5% 205 225 2%
52 - 230 10219 – 5.3% + 2.2% 209 230 2%
53 + 204 10423 – 3.4% + 4.2% 204 225 2%
54 - 229 10194 – 5.5% + 1.9% 208 229 2%
55 - 224 9970 – 7.6% – 0.3% 204 224 2%
56 + 199 10169 – 5.7% + 1.7% 199 219 2%
57 - 224 9945 – 7.8% – 0.5% 203 224 2%
58 - 219 9726 – 9.9% – 2.7% 199 219 2%
59 - 214 9512 – 11.8% – 4.9% 195 214 2%
60 + 190 9702 – 10.1% – 3.0% 190 209 2%
61 + 194 9896 – 8.3% – 1.0% 194 213 2%
62 + 198 10094 – 6.4% + 0.9% 198 218 2%
63 + 202 10296 – 4.6% + 3.0% 202 222 2%
64 - 227 10069 – 6.7% + 0.7% 206 227 2%
65 + 201 10270 – 4.8% + 2.7% 201 222 2%
66 + 205 10475 – 2.9% + 4.8% 205 226 2%
67 + 210 10685 – 1.0% + 6.9% 210 230 2%
68 + 214 10899 0% + 9.0% 214 235 2%
69 + 218 11117 0% + 11.2% 218 240 2%
70 + 222 11339 0% + 13.4% 222 245 2%
71 - 249 11090 – 2.2% + 10.9% 227 249 2%
72 - 244 10846 – 4.3% + 8.5% 222 244 2%
73 + 217 11063 – 2.4% + 10.6% 217 239 2%
74 - 243 10820 – 4.6% + 8.2% 221 243 2%
75 + 216 11036 – 2.7% + 10.4% 216 238 2%
76 + 221 11257 – 0.7% + 12.6% 221 243 2%
77 - 248 11009 – 2.9% + 10.1% 225 248 2%
78 - 242 10767 – 5.0% + 7.7% 220 242 2%
79 + 215 10982 – 3.1% + 9.8% 215 237 2%
80 + 220 11202 – 1.2% + 12.0% 220 242 2%
81 + 224 11426 0% + 14.3% 224 246 2%
82 + 229 11655 0% + 16.6% 229 251 2%
83 - 256 11399 – 2.2% + 14.0% 233 256 2%
84 + 228 11627 – 0.2% + 16.3% 228 251 2%
85 + 233 11860 0% + 18.6% 233 256 2%
86 + 237 12097 0% + 21.0% 237 261 2%
87 + 242 12339 0% + 23.4% 242 266 2%
88 + 247 12586 0% + 25.9% 247 271 2%
89 - 277 12309 – 2.2% + 23.1% 252 277 2%
90 - 271 12038 – 4.4% + 20.4% 246 271 2%
91 + 241 12279 – 2.4% + 22.8% 241 265 2%
92 + 246 12525 – 0.5% + 25.3% 246 270 2%
93 + 251 12776 0% + 27.8% 251 276 2%
94 + 256 13032 0% + 30.3% 256 281 2%
95 + 261 13293 0% + 32.9% 261 287 2%
96 - 292 13001 – 2.2% + 30.0% 266 292 2%
97 + 260 13261 – 0.2% + 32.6% 260 286 2%
98 - 292 12969 – 2.4% + 29.7% 265 292 2%
99 + 259 13228 – 0.5% + 32.3% 259 285 2%
100 + 265 13493 0% + 34.9% 265 291 2%

You can also read:

• February 14, 2010 -- Rules for Horse Betting
• March 20, 2010 -- Sports Like a Pro
• February 1, 2010 -- Baseball betting
• January 20, 2010 -- Betting frenzy
• January 11, 2010 -- Betting on baseball
• October 25, 2009 -- American Idol Betting Odds
• June 8, 2009 -- GTECH Deciding To Launch G2
• May 16, 2009 -- Tony Bloom A Star Poker And A Good Expert In Betting Sportive
• May 13, 2009 -- Stanleybet Has Joined The European Sports Security Association
• March 30, 2009 -- Sports Betting May Be Legal In Delaware?